diff --git a/changelog/unreleased/issue-3397 b/changelog/unreleased/issue-3397
new file mode 100644
index 000000000..391eeb004
--- /dev/null
+++ b/changelog/unreleased/issue-3397
@@ -0,0 +1,11 @@
+Enhancement: Improve the ETA displayed during backup
+
+Restic's `backup` command displayed an ETA that did not adapt when the rate
+of progress made during the backup changed during the course of the
+backup. Restic now uses recent progress when computing the ETA. It is
+important to realize that the estimate may still be wrong, because restic
+cannot predict the future, but the hope is that the ETA will be more
+accurate in most cases.
+
+https://github.com/restic/restic/issues/3397
+https://github.com/restic/restic/pull/3563
diff --git a/internal/ui/backup/progress.go b/internal/ui/backup/progress.go
index 8e15662a6..4362a8c83 100644
--- a/internal/ui/backup/progress.go
+++ b/internal/ui/backup/progress.go
@@ -43,7 +43,8 @@ type Progress struct {
 	progress.Updater
 	mu sync.Mutex
 
-	start time.Time
+	start     time.Time
+	estimator rateEstimator
 
 	scanStarted, scanFinished bool
 
@@ -60,6 +61,7 @@ func NewProgress(printer ProgressPrinter, interval time.Duration) *Progress {
 		start:        time.Now(),
 		currentFiles: make(map[string]struct{}),
 		printer:      printer,
+		estimator:    *newRateEstimator(time.Now()),
 	}
 	p.Updater = *progress.NewUpdater(interval, func(runtime time.Duration, final bool) {
 		if final {
@@ -73,9 +75,14 @@ func NewProgress(printer ProgressPrinter, interval time.Duration) *Progress {
 
 			var secondsRemaining uint64
 			if p.scanFinished {
-				secs := float64(runtime / time.Second)
-				todo := float64(p.total.Bytes - p.processed.Bytes)
-				secondsRemaining = uint64(secs / float64(p.processed.Bytes) * todo)
+				rate := p.estimator.rate(time.Now())
+				tooSlowCutoff := 1024.
+				if rate <= tooSlowCutoff {
+					secondsRemaining = 0
+				} else {
+					todo := float64(p.total.Bytes - p.processed.Bytes)
+					secondsRemaining = uint64(todo / rate)
+				}
 			}
 
 			p.printer.Update(p.total, p.processed, p.errors, p.currentFiles, p.start, secondsRemaining)
@@ -105,6 +112,7 @@ func (p *Progress) addProcessed(c Counter) {
 	p.processed.Files += c.Files
 	p.processed.Dirs += c.Dirs
 	p.processed.Bytes += c.Bytes
+	p.estimator.recordBytes(time.Now(), c.Bytes)
 	p.scanStarted = true
 }
 
diff --git a/internal/ui/backup/rate_estimator.go b/internal/ui/backup/rate_estimator.go
new file mode 100644
index 000000000..5291fbae1
--- /dev/null
+++ b/internal/ui/backup/rate_estimator.go
@@ -0,0 +1,98 @@
+package backup
+
+import (
+	"container/list"
+	"time"
+)
+
+// rateBucket represents a one second window of recorded progress.
+type rateBucket struct {
+	totalBytes uint64
+	end        time.Time // the end of the time window, exclusive
+}
+
+// rateEstimator represents an estimate of the time to complete an operation.
+type rateEstimator struct {
+	buckets    *list.List
+	start      time.Time
+	totalBytes uint64
+}
+
+// newRateEstimator returns an estimator initialized to a presumed start time.
+func newRateEstimator(start time.Time) *rateEstimator {
+	return &rateEstimator{buckets: list.New(), start: start}
+}
+
+// See trim(), below.
+const (
+	bucketWidth             = time.Second
+	minRateEstimatorBytes   = 100 * 1000 * 1000
+	minRateEstimatorBuckets = 20
+	minRateEstimatorMinutes = 2
+)
+
+// trim removes the oldest history from the estimator assuming a given
+// current time.
+func (r *rateEstimator) trim(now time.Time) {
+	// The estimator retains byte transfer counts over a two minute window.
+	// However, to avoid removing too much history when transfer rates are
+	// low, the estimator also retains a minimum number of processed bytes
+	// across a minimum number of buckets. An operation that is processing a
+	// significant number of bytes per second will typically retain only a
+	// two minute window's worth of information. One that is making slow
+	// progress, such as one being over a rate limited connection, typically
+	// observes bursts of updates as infrequently as every ten or twenty
+	// seconds, in which case the other limiters will kick in. This heuristic
+	// avoids wildly fluctuating estimates over rate limited connections.
+	start := now.Add(-minRateEstimatorMinutes * time.Minute)
+
+	for e := r.buckets.Front(); e != nil; e = r.buckets.Front() {
+		if r.buckets.Len() <= minRateEstimatorBuckets {
+			break
+		}
+		b := e.Value.(*rateBucket)
+		if b.end.After(start) {
+			break
+		}
+		total := r.totalBytes - b.totalBytes
+		if total < minRateEstimatorBytes {
+			break
+		}
+		r.start = b.end
+		r.totalBytes = total
+		r.buckets.Remove(e)
+	}
+}
+
+// recordBytes records the transfer of a number of bytes at a given
+// time. Times passed in successive calls should advance monotonically (as
+// is the case with time.Now().
+func (r *rateEstimator) recordBytes(now time.Time, bytes uint64) {
+	if bytes == 0 {
+		return
+	}
+	var tail *rateBucket
+	if r.buckets.Len() > 0 {
+		tail = r.buckets.Back().Value.(*rateBucket)
+	}
+	if tail == nil || !tail.end.After(now) {
+		// The new bucket holds measurements in the time range [now .. now+1sec).
+		tail = &rateBucket{end: now.Add(bucketWidth)}
+		r.buckets.PushBack(tail)
+	}
+	tail.totalBytes += bytes
+	r.totalBytes += bytes
+	r.trim(now)
+}
+
+// rate returns an estimated bytes per second rate at a given time, or zero
+// if there is not enough data to compute a rate.
+func (r *rateEstimator) rate(now time.Time) float64 {
+	r.trim(now)
+	if !r.start.Before(now) {
+		return 0
+	}
+	elapsed := float64(now.Sub(r.start)) / float64(time.Second)
+	rate := float64(r.totalBytes) / elapsed
+	return rate
+}
diff --git a/internal/ui/backup/rate_estimator_test.go b/internal/ui/backup/rate_estimator_test.go
new file mode 100644
index 000000000..0ebc6972b
--- /dev/null
+++ b/internal/ui/backup/rate_estimator_test.go
@@ -0,0 +1,213 @@
+package backup
+
+import (
+	"fmt"
+	"math"
+	"testing"
+	"time"
+
+	rtest "github.com/restic/restic/internal/test"
+)
+
+const float64EqualityThreshold = 1e-6
+
+func almostEqual(a, b float64) bool {
+	if math.IsNaN(a) || math.IsNaN(b) {
+		panic("almostEqual passed a NaN")
+	}
+	return math.Abs(a-b) <= float64EqualityThreshold
+}
+
+func TestEstimatorDefault(t *testing.T) {
+	var start time.Time
+	e := newRateEstimator(start)
+	r := e.rate(start)
+	rtest.Assert(t, r == 0, "e.Rate == %v, want zero", r)
+	r = e.rate(start.Add(time.Hour))
+	rtest.Assert(t, r == 0, "e.Rate == %v, want zero", r)
+}
+
+func TestEstimatorSimple(t *testing.T) {
+	var start time.Time
+	type testcase struct {
+		bytes uint64
+		when  time.Duration
+		rate  float64
+	}
+
+	cases := []testcase{
+		{0, 0, 0},
+		{1, time.Second, 1},
+		{60, time.Second, 60},
+		{60, time.Minute, 1},
+	}
+	for _, c := range cases {
+		name := fmt.Sprintf("%+v", c)
+		t.Run(name, func(t *testing.T) {
+			e := newRateEstimator(start)
+			e.recordBytes(start.Add(time.Second), c.bytes)
+			rate := e.rate(start.Add(c.when))
+			rtest.Assert(t, almostEqual(rate, c.rate), "e.Rate == %v, want %v", rate, c.rate)
+		})
+	}
+}
+
+func TestBucketWidth(t *testing.T) {
+	var when time.Time
+
+	// Recording byte transfers within a bucket width's time window uses one
+	// bucket.
+	e := newRateEstimator(when)
+	e.recordBytes(when, 1)
+	e.recordBytes(when.Add(bucketWidth-time.Nanosecond), 1)
+	rtest.Assert(t, e.buckets.Len() == 1, "e.buckets.Len() is %d, want 1", e.buckets.Len())
+
+	b := e.buckets.Back().Value.(*rateBucket)
+	rtest.Assert(t, b.totalBytes == 2, "b.totalBytes is %d, want 2", b.totalBytes)
+	rtest.Assert(t, b.end == when.Add(bucketWidth), "b.end is %v, want %v", b.end, when.Add(bucketWidth))
+
+	// Recording a byte outside the bucket width causes another bucket.
+	e.recordBytes(when.Add(bucketWidth), 1)
+	rtest.Assert(t, e.buckets.Len() == 2, "e.buckets.Len() is %d, want 2", e.buckets.Len())
+
+	b = e.buckets.Back().Value.(*rateBucket)
+	rtest.Assert(t, b.totalBytes == 1, "b.totalBytes is %d, want 1", b.totalBytes)
+	rtest.Assert(t, b.end == when.Add(2*bucketWidth), "b.end is %v, want %v", b.end, when.Add(bucketWidth))
+
+	// Recording a byte after a longer delay creates a sparse bucket list.
+	e.recordBytes(when.Add(time.Hour+time.Millisecond), 7)
+	rtest.Assert(t, e.buckets.Len() == 3, "e.buckets.Len() is %d, want 3", e.buckets.Len())
+
+	b = e.buckets.Back().Value.(*rateBucket)
+	rtest.Assert(t, b.totalBytes == 7, "b.totalBytes is %d, want 7", b.totalBytes)
+	rtest.Equals(t, when.Add(time.Hour+time.Millisecond+time.Second), b.end)
+}
+
+type chunk struct {
+	repetitions uint64 // repetition count
+	bytes       uint64 // byte count (every second)
+}
+
+func applyChunks(chunks []chunk, t time.Time, e *rateEstimator) time.Time {
+	for _, c := range chunks {
+		for i := uint64(0); i < c.repetitions; i++ {
+			e.recordBytes(t, c.bytes)
+			t = t.Add(time.Second)
+		}
+	}
+	return t
+}
+
+func TestEstimatorResponsiveness(t *testing.T) {
+	type testcase struct {
+		description string
+		chunks      []chunk
+		rate        float64
+	}
+
+	cases := []testcase{
+		{
+			"1000 bytes/sec over one second",
+			[]chunk{
+				{1, 1000},
+			},
+			1000,
+		},
+		{
+			"1000 bytes/sec over one minute",
+			[]chunk{
+				{60, 1000},
+			},
+			1000,
+		},
+		{
+			"1000 bytes/sec for 10 seconds, then 2000 bytes/sec for 10 seconds",
+			[]chunk{
+				{10, 1000},
+				{10, 2000},
+			},
+			1500,
+		},
+		{
+			"1000 bytes/sec for one minute, then 2000 bytes/sec for one minute",
+			[]chunk{
+				{60, 1000},
+				{60, 2000},
+			},
+			1500,
+		},
+		{
+			"rate doubles after 30 seconds",
+			[]chunk{
+				{30, minRateEstimatorBytes},
+				{90, 2 * minRateEstimatorBytes},
+			},
+			minRateEstimatorBytes * 1.75,
+		},
+		{
+			"rate doubles after 31 seconds",
+			[]chunk{
+				{31, minRateEstimatorBytes},
+				{90, 2 * minRateEstimatorBytes},
+			},
+			// The expected rate is the same as the prior test case because the
+			// first second has rolled off the estimator.
+			minRateEstimatorBytes * 1.75,
+		},
+		{
+			"rate doubles after 90 seconds",
+			[]chunk{
+				{90, minRateEstimatorBytes},
+				{90, 2 * minRateEstimatorBytes},
+			},
+			// The expected rate is the same as the prior test case because the
+			// first 60 seconds have rolled off the estimator.
+			minRateEstimatorBytes * 1.75,
+		},
+		{
+			"rate doubles for two full minutes",
+			[]chunk{
+				{60, minRateEstimatorBytes},
+				{120, 2 * minRateEstimatorBytes},
+			},
+			2 * minRateEstimatorBytes,
+		},
+		{
+			"rate falls to zero",
+			[]chunk{
+				{30, minRateEstimatorBytes},
+				{30, 0},
+			},
+			minRateEstimatorBytes / 2,
+		},
+		{
+			"rate falls to zero for extended time",
+			[]chunk{
+				{60, 1000},
+				{300, 0},
+			},
+			1000 * 60 / (60 + 300.0),
+		},
+		{
+			"rate falls to zero for extended time (from high rate)",
+			[]chunk{
+				{2 * minRateEstimatorBuckets, minRateEstimatorBytes},
+				{300, 0},
+			},
+			// Expect that only minRateEstimatorBuckets buckets are used in the
+			// rate estimate.
+			minRateEstimatorBytes * minRateEstimatorBuckets /
+				(minRateEstimatorBuckets + 300.0),
+		},
+	}
+
+	for _, c := range cases {
+		t.Run(c.description, func(t *testing.T) {
+			var w time.Time
+			e := newRateEstimator(w)
+			w = applyChunks(c.chunks, w, e)
+			r := e.rate(w)
+			rtest.Assert(t, almostEqual(r, c.rate), "e.Rate == %f, want %f", r, c.rate)
+		})
+	}
+}